News24
23 Feb 2021, 14:12 GMT+10
Asian markets mostly rose Tuesday, fuelled by growing hope that vaccine rollouts will allow the global economy to get back on track, but the optimism was tempered by niggling worries that the recovery will fan inflation and interest rate hikes.
With governments picking up the pace in their coronavirus inoculation drives, and infection and death rates slowing in most parts of the world, observers are predicting a surge in economic activity from the middle of the year as lockdowns are eased.
Added to that is Joe US President Biden's huge growth-boosting spending programme, which is likely to be passed by Congress next month, on top of the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep monetary policy ultra-loose for as long as needed.
Monumental government and central bank support worth trillions of dollars has been a key driver of the surge in world equities from their nadir almost a year ago when the coronavirus was rampaging across the planet.
But while the mood is increasingly good, investors are turning their focus to the impact of the reflation -- a rally in prices as people go back to shops and restaurants or start going on holiday again.
Expectations that inflation will spike has seen US 10-year Treasury yields rally to a one-year high, and that has spooked investors who fear that means interest rates will go up in turn.
Technology firms, which have outperformed as they benefit from people being forced to stay home, have been worst hit, while those likely to do well as economies reopen are enjoying much-needed buying interest.
"Investors are quickly rediscovering that not all stocks are created equal in a Covid recovery as expensive tech names (are sold) to provide the source of funds for less expensive travel-related markers, along with energy and other inflation beneficiaries," said Axi strategist Stephen Innes.
The play-off between recovery and inflation worries has brought a rally in world markets to a halt in recent weeks, after some had hit record or multi-year highs.
'Blase' Fed concern
The tech-rich Nasdaq tumbled more than two percent Monday, while the S&P 500 was also in the red, though the Dow eked out gains.
And Asian investors trod warily. Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta were all up but Shanghai, Seoul and Wellington fell. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
Crucial catalysts to drive stocks higher "may be fading as markets come to terms with the next phase of the recovery", said Chris Iggo at AXA Investment Managers.
"I wouldn't be surprised if market returns are more volatile in the coming months."
Traders are keenly awaiting Fed boss Jerome Powell's congressional testimony from Tuesday, looking for an idea about the central bank's thinking on the rising yields and their effect on policy, particularly interest rates.
"The Fed has gone to great lengths to dial back expectations of any possible near term rate rise, giving the impression that they will ignore any short-term inflationary spikes," said CMC Markets' Michael Hewson.
"With US 10-year yields falling just shy of 1.4%... there is a concern that US central bankers are being a little bit too blase about inflation risks", particularly with a new US stimulus close.
But OANDA's Edward Moya said Powell will likely reaffirm his commitment to seeing employment recover and inflation remain elevated.
"The path of rates won't change this year, with the earliest that some economists see a potential move up in rates being next January," he said.
"Since financial conditions are tightening and with wage pressures remaining nonexistent, that should keep inflation fears from getting out of control.
"The economic data has been improving but remains inconsistent and that is all Powell needs to keep his ultra-accommodative stance."
Oil prices continued their march higher, piling on more than one percent a day after clocking up gains of almost four percent, on demand optimism as the world emerges from lockdown.
Get a daily dose of Dublin News news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Dublin News.
More InformationWASHINGTON, D.C.: President Donald Trump has granted TikTok another reprieve, extending the deadline for its Chinese parent company,...
WASHINGTON, D.C.: As the global weight-loss market explodes, drugmakers are now racing to solve a less visible problem: protecting...
HAYWARD, California: In a significant step toward its commercial debut, Amazon-owned Zoox has unveiled its first factory dedicated...
SAO PAULO, Brazil: Brazil is taking confident steps to restore its dominance in global poultry exports after declaring its commercial...
NEW YORK, New YorK - U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with gains and losses modest, as investors and traders weighed up the escalation...
WASHINGTON, D.C.: Retail sales dropped sharply in May as consumer spending slowed after a strong start to the year, primarily due to...
ZURICH, Switzerland: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key interest rate to zero percent on June 19 to respond to falling inflation,...
THE HAGUE, Netherlands: The city that prides itself on being a beacon of peace and justice—home to institutions like the International...
DUBLIN, Ireland: Fine Gael Senator Mark Duffy says new laws to regulate vaping products will help make them less attractive to young...
MADRID, Spain: A routine oversight by Spain's power grid operator, REE, has been identified as the trigger behind the large-scale blackout...
DUBLIN, Ireland: Egyptian authorities released Paul Murphy, TD, from the People Before Profit party after his second detention on June...
DUBLIN, Ireland: In a significant demonstration outside Leinster House in Dublin, hundreds of housing protesters voiced their frustration...